V V G ~ Economic Indicators
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V V G ~ Economic Indicators Copyright © 1999 - 2006 Vietnam Venture Group, Inc.® Updated August 1, 2006 |
This space provides
the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators. This
is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.
Please read this data in conjunction with
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and our Service pages in order to learn
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Current as of the month reported, data sources include VVG original research, General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, Saigon Times Weekly, and Vietnam Economic Times. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves and is really anyone's guess, as the system lacks transparency.
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Prior On-Line Issues Of October 1998 through December 2005 Note 1: Economics Indicators for February , March, April 2006 were not published. |
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Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange
Current Annual Rate of Inflation: 6% (2006)f ; Year 2005 to date: 2.5% [Chart VET January 2005] By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%. By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%. See prior reports or above for a more complete, historical picture.
Current and Recent monthly rates of inflation:
|
July 2006 |
August 2006 |
September 2006 |
October 2006 |
November 2006 |
December 2006 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - |
| January 2006 | February 2006 | March 2006 | April 2006 | May 2006 | June 2006 |
| 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
|
July 2005 |
August 2005 |
September 2005 |
October 2005 |
November 2005 |
December 2005 |
| 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 8.4 |
| January 2005 | February 2005 | March 2005 | April 2005 | May 2005 | June 2005 |
| 1.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
|
July 2004 |
August 2004 |
September 2004 |
October 2004 |
November 2004 |
December 2004 |
| 7.7 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
|
January 2004 |
February 2004 |
March 2004 |
April 2004 |
May 2004 |
June 2004 |
|
1.1 |
4.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7.2 |
| July 2003 | August 2003 | September 2003 | October 2003 | November 2003 | December 2003 |
| 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| January 2003 | February 2003 | March 2003 | April 2003 | May 2003 | June 2003 |
| 0.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| July 2002 | August 2002 | September 2002 | October 2002 | November 2002 | December 2002 |
| 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| January 2002 | February 2002 | March 2002 | April 2002 | May 2002 | June 2002 |
| 1.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| July 2001 | August 2001 | September 2001 | October 2001 | November 2001 | December 2001 |
| - 0.9 | - 0.9 | - 0.4 | - 0.4 | - 0.2 | 0.8 |
| January 2001 | February 2001 | March 2001 | April 2001 | May 2001 | June 2001 |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | - 0.5 | - 0.7 | - 0.7 |
| July 2000 | August 2000 | September 2000 | October 2000 | November 2000 | December 2000 |
| -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.6 | - 0.7 | - 0.6 |
Historical annual rates of inflation:
|
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 | 2005 | 2006 |
|
14.4 |
12.7 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
9.2 |
0.7 |
- 0.5 |
- 0.3 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.7 | - | - |
Current Rate of Exchange (Domestic buying VND using cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only) US dollar to Vietnam dong 1 : 15,934 (VNS 20Feb06) prior report:15,850. The black market rate: buying 100 and 50 US dollar notes for approximately 250 VND/US$ more, and selling dollars for 350 VND/US$ more, than the quoted official rate.
|
Interbank Rate
Tuesday, August 1, 2006 http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic
1 US Dollar = 16,364.9 Vietnamese Dong |
[The introduction in year 2001 of the VND 100,000 "brown" note worth US$ 6.04 at the current exchange rate, helps to ease, if not speed, the rate of spending. When we first arrived in January 1994 the standard bank note was the VND 5,000 note while the largest bank note was the then very new VND 20,000 "green" bill, then worth US$1.90 and now convertible at $1.21].
Outstanding
External Debt in US$ millions
(ADB): 1997
- 11,612; 1998 -
10.8; 1999 - 11.1;
2000 - 13.9; 2001 - 14.4;
20021
- 12,500
1. Gross external debt is put at US$14.0 billion or 38% of gross domestic product (GDP), reportedly mainly made up of low-interest ODA lending. Net external debt is put at 18.5% of currency external receipt. (Source Fitch Report via STW)
Balance
of Trade US$
billions (VET January 2005 and other public reports)
Note:
All
publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State
propagandizing. The numbers reported here are not always consistent with
those from other services. When we are aware of substantial discrepancies,
we mention them. We also pass on any explanation that is offered, which is
very rare.
Because changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line for such historic details as they may need. This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.
|
|
2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
20001 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
|
Exports |
18.20 | 16.87 | 24.56 |
12.61 |
16.23 |
16.74 |
13.06/14.31 |
11.9 |
9.4 |
8.9 |
7.1 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
|
Imports |
20.25 | 18.95 | 29.36 |
14.79 |
18.26 |
17.70 |
14.63/15.2 |
12.01 |
11.4 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
7.5 |
5.3 |
|
Balance |
-2.05 | -2.08 | - 4.80 |
-2.18 |
- 2.03 |
- 1.0 |
- 1.6 |
- 0.2 |
- 2.0 |
- 2.3 |
- 4.0 |
- 2.3 |
- 1.2 |
1. Year 2000 [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue
are from Vietnam's GSO
Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)
| 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| na | na | na | na | na | 6.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 22.2 |
Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (Dec 04 VET)
| 2005 (f) | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| 6.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | - 0.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 9.2 | 3.6 |
GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/ADB/IMF/UPI/WB
| 2010 (f) | 2007 (f) | 2006 (e) | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 20011 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| double year 2000 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.25 | 4.4 | 7.1/ 7.0/4.75 | 6.75/5.5 | 4.8 | 5.8 / 4.0 | 8.8 / 8.2 | 9.34 | 9.54 |
1. The State reduced this figure from
7.5 to 7.1 in October 2001, which the World Bank supports.
GDP (converted to US$) US$ 1 = VND 15,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars
| 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 35.0 | 35.3 | 33.7 | 32.89 | 32.9 | 28.19 | 26.41 | 26.0 | 24.27 | 21.65 | 14.86 |
GDP per capita (converted to US$) VND 1 = US$ 16,0001 (constant)
| 20044 | 2002 | 20013 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 564 | 394 | 375-1,875 | 363 2 | 339 | 311 | 295 | 282 | 200 |
1 as of 1 September 2005. We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND and at 15,000 VND as constants. Thus when looking at the actual GDP per capita for 1995 at the time, please first convert to VND at the current rate and then use the rate of conversion then current (11,500 to 1) for US$ 278.26
2 This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark. VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published. While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports:
[The average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time.... Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) in 1999, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86. (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000).
VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam. The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.
3. It is claimed (VIR, Jan 2002 p10) that this reported range is determined under the Parity Purchase Power method (PPM). No explanation is offered if this is the same as the United Nation's Purchase Power Parity (PPP) system, designed "to show the different levels of spending power on a country by country basis. A market basket of such items as average incomes, taxes, interest rates, insurance, utilities, gasoline, milk, newspapers and other typical expenses are compared and used to devise the PPP. The standard is based on the USA=100," or who the PPP is now made into a range and used by the State to report GDP. For a more complete read on the PPP system developed by the United Nations, please write to VVG to receive a copy by E-mail.
The more widely accepted sum for year 2001 is $399.
4. Source: Ministry of Finance, as reported in the 726VIR4 September 12-18, 2005 that also reports Per Capita Income for the same period at US$ 384
Caveat: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing. The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. The numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground. There is rarely an explanation offered.
Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line or above for such historic details as they may need. This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.
These numbers do not include ODA disbursements that in 2004 has been variably reported but in the range of $2.8 billion. This has been increased to $3.4 billion for 2005. Despite its fast-growing economy, averaging seven per cent a year, the country still relies on foreign aid to build schools, clinics, road and power grids. $25 billion was earlier pledged from 1999 to 2003.
As of June 20, 2006 (July 2006 VET)
All Nations: Current projects number 5,468
[vs. 5,021 last report] with Total Investment Capital US$ 48,688 billion [vs. $45,368 billion last report] and Implemented Capital of US$ 26,297 billion [vs. $25,959 last report].Where the numbers increase or decrease month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number. We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves as the system lacks transparency.
Top Twenty Foreign Direct Investor Nations :
|
Rank2 |
Nation |
Number of |
Total Capital (US$b) |
Implemented Capital (US$b) |
Rank2 |
Nation |
Number of |
Total Capital (US$b) |
Implemented Capital (US$b) |
|
1 |
Singapore |
421+ |
7.717+ |
3.642+ |
11 |
Thailand |
132- |
1.469- |
0.806+ |
|
2 |
Taiwan |
1,481+ |
7.980+ |
2.864+ |
12 |
Malaysia |
192+ |
1.578 |
0.894+ |
|
3 |
Japan |
668+ |
6.795+ |
4.751+ |
13 |
United States |
289+ |
1.998+ |
0.758+ |
|
4 |
South Korea |
1,159+ |
5.837+ |
2.613+ |
14 |
Australia |
122+ |
0.674+ |
0.347+ |
|
5 |
Hong Kong |
365 |
4.370+ |
2.113+ |
15 |
Switzerland |
38+ |
0.713+ |
0.720+ |
|
6 |
France |
171+ |
2.189+ |
1.100+ |
16 |
Cayman Is. |
17+ |
0.775+ |
0.477+ |
|
7 |
Br.Vir.Islands |
267+ |
2.837+ |
1.301+ |
17 |
Germany |
75+ |
0.345+ |
0.160+ |
|
8 |
Netherlands |
66+ |
2.029+ |
1.924+ |
18 |
Sweden |
10 |
0.031 |
0.014 |
|
9 |
Russia |
47- |
0.277- |
0.613+ |
19 |
Bermuda |
5 |
0.260 |
0.193+ |
|
10 |
U.K. |
73+ |
1.297+ |
0.642+ |
20 |
Philippines |
25 |
0.238- |
0.085+ |
Notes:
1. As reported earlier (here in March 2002 and April 2002, and in Vietnam Vignettes for May 2002) we see some fiddling with the reported numbers in the listings for Total Implemented Capital. While most if not all financial reports from the State are still considered by leading foreign economists as overstated, undisguised errors highlight huge discrepancies and the questionable nature of these financial reports from Vietnam. In March 2003 we saw a reported loss in total FDI and yet the numbers for that month indicated an increase. The third Q 2002 loss of Russian investments amounting to $600 million in the Dung Quat project at that time seem to account for some of this down turn. The total capital numbers were down from 1.507 billion to 0.214 billion while implemented capital was down from 0.671 billion to 0.140 billion. January 2003 numbers were not published, which may have something to do with then current picture. Clearly the nation still needs transparency in reporting (that means access to accurate -- both current and historical -- numbers as well as accountability in reporting) to build investor confidence.
2. While the State authorized media report this list in rank order, we are not able to determine the basis of the rank order. In the past this listing had been ranked by the total capital invested, but that ordering system is long abandoned. Therefore, we suggest that no significance be attributed to the ranking number and readers should instead concentrate on the actual numbers presented in each of the several categories. The reported originating source is the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
Foreign Investment By Sector 1 Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$)
Caveat: As above in Foreign Capital Investment, these numbers are the best available and are published by State controlled media. For the reasons earlier stated, they are highly suspect. We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting.
Where the numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number. Where there is substantial change worthy of note, we mark that with a double + or - (as ++ or --). While the public and we are given no explanations for the changes, we do invite readers to review the previous reports in Economic Indicators for further research.
As of June 20, 2006 (July 2006 VET)
|
Sector |
Total Projects |
Total Invested |
Total Implemented
|
|
Industry & Construction |
4,328+ |
32.975+ |
19.629+ |
|
Oil & Gas |
28+ |
1.892+ |
5.452 |
|
Construction |
342+ |
4.096- |
2.354+ |
|
Agriculture & Forestry |
800+ |
3.860+ |
1.892+ |
|
Fisheries |
113- |
0.309- |