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V V G ~ Economic Indicators Copyright © 1999 - 1997-2008 Venture Group, Inc.® Updated October 30, 2003 |
This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators. This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam. Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes , the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn more about Vietnam and V V G. Please write to us with your business-related questions when you consider a project in Vietnam and want to know more about us.
Current as of the month reported, data sources include VVG original research, General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, Saigon Times Weekly, and Vietnam Economic Times. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves and is really anyone's guess, as the system lacks transparency.
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Prior On-Line Issues Of October 1998 through December 2002
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Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange
Current Annual Rate of Inflation: 3.0% (2003)f ; Year 2003 to date: 2.11% [Chart VET Sep 2003] By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%. By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%. See prior reports or above for a more complete, historical picture.
Current and Recent monthly rates of inflation:
|
July 2003 |
August 2003 |
September 2003 |
October 2003 |
November 2003 |
December 2003 |
|
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
January 2003 |
February 2003 |
March 2003 |
April 2003 |
May 2003 |
June 2003 |
|
0.9 |
3.3 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
| July 2002 | August 2002 | September 2002 | October 2002 | November 2002 | December 2002 |
| 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| January 2002 | February 2002 | March 2002 | April 2002 | May 2002 | June 2002 |
| 1.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| July 2001 | August 2001 | September 2001 | October 2001 | November 2001 | December 2001 |
| - 0.9 | - 0.9 | - 0.4 | - 0.4 | - 0.2 | 0.8 |
| January 2001 | February 2001 | March 2001 | April 2001 | May 2001 | June 2001 |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | - 0.5 | - 0.7 | - 0.7 |
| July 2000 | August 2000 | September 2000 | October 2000 | November 2000 | December 2000 |
| -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.6 | - 0.7 | - 0.6 |
Historical annual rates of inflation:
|
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
|
14.4 |
12.7 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
9.2 |
0.7 |
- 0.5 |
- 0.3 |
2.9 |
3.0f |
Current Rate of Exchange
(buying VND using cash
in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only)
US dollar to Vietnam dong 1 : 15,553
(VNN 29Sep03) prior month:15,538 The
black market rate: buying 100 and 50 US dollar notes for approximately 250 VND/US$
more, and selling
dollars for 350
VND/US$ more, than the quoted official rate.
[Unofficial projections have been running that this will drop to below 16,000, a target that appears fast approaching. The introduction in year 2001 of the VND 100,000 "brown" note worth US$6.44 at the current exchange rate, helps to ease, if not speed, the rate of spending. When we first arrived in January 1994 the standard bank note was the VND 5,000 note while the largest bank note was the then very new VND 20,000 "green" bill, then worth US$1.90 and now convertible at $1.29].
Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612; 1998 - 10.8; 1999 - 11.1; 2000 - 13.9; 2001 - 14.4; 20021 - 12,500
1. Gross external debt is put at US$14.0 billion or 38% of gross domestic product (GDP), reportedly mainly made up of low-interest ODA lending. Net external debt is put at 18.5% of currency external receipt. (Source Fitch Report via STW)
Balance
of Trade US$
billions (VET Sep 2003 and other public reports)
Note:
All
publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State
propagandizing. The numbers reported here are not always consistent with
those from other services. When we are aware of substantial discrepancies,
we mention them. We also pass on any explanation that is offered, which is
very rare.
Because changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line for such historic details as they may need. This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.
|
|
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
20001 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
1665 |
1994 |
|
Exports |
12.61 |
16.23 |
16.74 |
13.06/14.31 |
11.9 |
9.4 |
8.9 |
7.1 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
|
Imports |
14.79 |
18.26 |
17.70 |
14.63/15.2 |
12.01 |
11.4 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
7.5 |
5.3 |
|
Balance |
-2.18 |
- 2.03 |
- 1.0 |
- 1.6 |
- 0.2 |
- 2.0 |
- 2.3 |
- 4.0 |
- 2.3 |
- 1.2 |
1. Year 2000 [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue are from Vietnam's GSO
Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)
| 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 (e) | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| n/a | n/a | n/a | 6.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 22.2 |
Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)
| 2001 | 2000 (e) | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| n/a | 7.0 | 4.0 | 9.2 | 3.6 |
GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/ADB/IMF
| 2010 (f) | 2004(f) | 2003(e) | 2002 | 20011 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| double year 2000 | 8.0 | 7.0-7.5 | 7.02 | 7.1/ 7.0/4.75 | 6.75/5.5 | 4.8 | 5.8 / 4.0 | 8.8 / 8.2 | 9.34 | 9.54 |
1. The State reduced this figure from 7.5 to 7.1 in October 2001, which the World Bank supports.
2. Full year 2002 : 6.7% (#585 STW 21Dec02)
GDP (converted to US$) US$ 1 = VND 15,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars
| 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 32.89 | 32.9 | 28.19 | 26.41 | 26 | 24.27 | 21.65 | 14.86 |
GDP per capita (converted to US$) VND 1 = US$ 15,0001 (constant)
| 2002 | 20013 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 420 | 400-2,000 | 387 2 | 362 | 332 | 315 | 301 | 214 |
1 We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND as a constant.
2 This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark. VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published. While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports:
[T]he average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time.... Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) in 1999, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86. (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000).
VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam. The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.
3. It is claimed (VIR, Jan 2002 p10) that this reported range is determined under the Parity Purchase Power method (PPM). No explanation is offered if this is the same as the United Nation's Purchase Power Parity (PPP) system, designed "to show the different levels of spending power on a country by country basis. A market basket of such items as average incomes, taxes, interest rates, insurance, utilities, gasoline, milk, newspapers and other typical expenses are compared and used to devise the PPP. The standard is based on the USA=100," or who the PPP is now made into a range and used by the State to report GDP. For a more complete read on the PPP system developed by the United Nations, please write to VVG to receive a copy by E-mail.
The more widely accepted sum for year 2001 is $399.
Caveat: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing. The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. The numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground. There is rarely an explanation offered.
Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line or above for such historic details as they may need. This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.
These numbers do not include ODA disbursements that in 2002 has been variably reported but in the range of $750 million. These funds usually go towards infrastructure development.
As of
September 20, 2003 (October 2003 VET)All Nations: Current projects number 4,
178[vs. 4,092 last report] with Total Investment Capital $40.020 billion [vs. $39.796 billion last report] and Implemented Capital of $23.624 billion [vs. $22.534 billion last month].Where the numbers increase or decrease month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number. We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves as the system lacks transparency.
Top Twenty Foreign Direct Investor Nations :|
Rank2 |
Nation |
Number of |
Total Capital (US$b) |
Implemented Capital (US$b) |
Rank2 |
Nation |
Number of |
Total Capital (US$b) |
Implemented Capital (US$b) |
|
1 |
Singapore |
284+ |
7.360+ |
2.770 |
11 |
Thailand |
117 |
1.383 |
0.600 |
|
2 |
Taiwan |
1,044+ |
5.698+ |
2.533+ |
12 |
Malaysia |
128+ |
1.101+ |
0.736+ |
|
3 |
Japan |
410+ |
4.456+ |
2.887 - |
13 |
United States |
171 |
1.130+ |
0.634 - |
|
4 |
South Korea |
619+ |
3.978+ |
2.284 |
14 |
Australia |
81 |
0.572 - |
0.272+ |
|
5 |
Hong Kong |
282 |
2.971 - |
1.760 - |
15 |
Switzerland |
24 |
0.626 |
0.518+ |
|
6 |
France |
131+ |
2.112 |
1.043 - |
16 |
Cayman Is. |
11 |
0.475 |
0.481 |
|
7 |
Br.Vir.Islands |
183+ |
2.059+ |
1.048+ |
17 |
Germany |
48+ |
0.243+ |
0.121 |
|
8 |
Netherlands |
52+ |
1.724+ |
1.693+ |
18 |
Sweden |
10+ |
0.455+ |
0.359 |
|
9 |
Russia |
43 |
0.226+ |
0.173 |
19 |
Bermuda |
5 |
0.260 |
0.157 |
|
10 |
U.K. |
51+ |
1.195 |
1.180+ |
20 |
Philippines |
19 |
0.184 |
0.084 |
Notes:
1. As reported earlier (here in March 2002 and April 2002, and in Vietnam Vignettes for May 2002) we see some fiddling with the reported numbers in the listings for Total Implemented Capital. While most if not all financial reports from the State are still considered by leading foreign economists as overstated, undisguised errors highlight huge discrepancies and the questionable nature of these financial reports from Vietnam. In March 2003 we saw a reported loss in total FDI and yet the numbers for that month indicated an increase. The third Q 2002 loss of Russian investments amounting to $600 million in the Dung Quat project at that time seem to account for some of this down turn. The total capital numbers were down from 1.507 billion to 0.214 billion while implemented capital was down from 0.671 billion to 0.140 billion. January 2003 numbers were not published, which may have something to do with then current picture. Clearly the nation still needs transparency in reporting (that means access to accurate -- both current and historical -- numbers as well as accountability in reporting) to build investor confidence.
2. While the State authorized media report this list in rank order, we are not able to determine the basis of the rank order. In the past this listing had been ranked by the total capital invested, but that ordering system is long abandoned. Therefore, we suggest that no significance be attributed to the ranking number and readers should instead concentrate on the actual numbers presented in each of the several categories. The reported originating source is the Ministry of Planning and Investment.
Foreign Investment By Sector 1 Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$)
Caveat: As above in Foreign Capital Investment, these numbers are the best available and are published by State controlled media. For the reasons earlier stated, they are highly suspect. We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting.
Where the numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number. Where there is substantial change worthy of note, we mark that with a double + or - (as ++ or --). While the public and we are given no explanations for the changes, we do invite readers to review the previous reports in Economic Indicators for further research.
As of
September 20, 2003 (October 2003 VET)|
Sector |
Total Projects |
Total Invested |
Total Implemented
|
|
Industry & Construction |
2,802+ |
22.558+ |
15.890+ |
|
Oil & Gas |
29 |
1.931 - |
4.545 - |
|
Construction |
273+ |
3.459+ |
1.547 - |
|
Agriculture & Forestry |
463+ |
2.537+ |
0.122 - |
|
Fisheries |
91 |
0.256 |
0.120 |
|
Services |
822+ |
14.668 - |
6.216+ |
|
Banking and Finance |
47 |
0.606 |
0.600 |
|
Health and Education |
142+ |
0.623 - |
0.227+ |
|
Offices and Apartments |
101 |
3.494+ |
1.594 - |
|
Building New Urban Areas |
3 |
2.467 |
0.395 - |
|
IPZ & EPZ Infrastructure |
19 |
0.896 - |
0.521+ |
|
Transport & Telecom |
113 |
2.584 |
1.036+ |
|
Hotels & Tourism |
142 |
3.268+ |
2.006 - |
|
Others |
255+ |
0.730+ |
0.276 |
Notes:
1. As reported earlier (here in March 2002 and April 2002, and in Vietnam Vignettes for May 2002) we see some fiddling with the Sector Investments. While most if not all financial reports from the State are considered overstated, recent undisguised errors show huge discrepancies and the questionable nature of these financial reports from Vietnam. The third Q 2002 loss of Russian investment amounting to $600 million in the Dung Quat projects first was reported in February 2003 that seems to account for some of down turn seen in the total investment numbers that were down from 3.195 billion to 1.953 billion while the implemented capital decreased from 3.511 billion to 3.346 billion. That the January 2003 numbers were not published may have something to do with the then current picture. Clearly the nation still needs transparency in reporting (that means access to accurate -- both current and historical -- numbers as well as accountability in reporting) to build investor confidence.
Foreign
Investment By Province1:
Caveat:
Accurate investment figures are not readily
available, and when published, they lack transparency. There is no
logical reason for apparent reporting discrepancies. Following a long,
unexplained suspension, in September
2000, the State resumed its monthly reports on Implemented Capital, earlier
called Capital
Committed . Estimates of this number differ among multinational
institutions but currently run at between 25%
to 50% of the official government statistics offered here.
The numbers in this report as they are reported by the State for international use, and vary substantially from month to month. Sometimes the number of projects and capital increases but implemented capital decreases. The reverse also happens. It could be due to a reporting lag time or intentional fiddling with the numbers. There is no explanation offered to the public.
Where the following numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number. While we have no explanations for the changes, we do encourage readers to review prior reports on line as readers may have the need for historical accuracy.
Top Twenty Locations by Total Capital As of
Semtember 20, 2003 (VET October 2003)|
|
Province |
Number of Projects 2003 |
Total |
Total Capital |
Total Implemented Capital (US$b) |
|
1 |
HCMC |
115 |
1,343+ |
10.735 - |
5.429 - |
|
2 |
Hanoi |
29 |
480+ |
7.556+ |
3.140+ |
|
3 |
Dong Nai |
34 |
470+ |
6.166+ |
2.952+ |
|
4 |
Binh Duong |
72 |
729+ |
3.326+ |
1.607+ |
|
5 |
BaRia-Vung Tau |
6 |
85+ |
1.995+ |
1.151+ |
|
6 |
Quang Ngai |
1 |
7 |