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This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators.  This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.   Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes ,  the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn how V V G may be able to meet your specific needs.  Please write to us  with your business-related questions about how you wish to retain V V G.

Current as of  the month reported, data sources include VVG original research,  General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, and Vietnam Economic Times.  Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves and is really anyone's guess, as the system lacks transparency.

WWW http://www.vvg-vietnam.com

Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange

Current Annual Rate of Inflation: 0.58 (ytd 2002) [Chart VET April 2002]   NOTE:  2001 was  the second year running in which negative numbers for 8 consecutive months were recorded.  The year 2000 ended in negative numbers only having modest positive numbers in the first quarter.   Generally, a drop of two consecutive quarters in the rate of inflation is the signal of recession. By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%.  By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%. See prior reports  or above for a more complete, historical picture. 

The IMF claims annual inflation in 2001 was +0.8%, up from the -1.8% it found in 2000. Note that Vietnam's GSO does not always agree with international observers. The State, when it can, generally quotes those numbers if finds most favorable.

Current and Recent monthly rates of inflation:

Historical annual rates of inflation:

Current Rate of Exchange (exchanging cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only)
US dollar to Vietnam dong  1 : 15,218 (VNN-12Apr02) The black market rate: buying 100 and 50 US dollar notes for VND15,350 and selling dollars for VND15,400

[Unofficial projections have been running that this will drop to below 16,000, a target that appears fast approaching. The relatively recent introduction of the VND 100,000 "brown" note worth US$6.60 at the current exchange rate, will ease, if not speed, the rate of spending. When we first arrived in January 1994 the then very new VND 20,000 "green" note was then worth US$1.90 and is now worth $1.32].

Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612;  1998 - 14,861; 1999 - n/a; 2000 - n/a

Index                                                                                                  

Balance of Trade ¹ US$ billions (VET April 2002 and other public reports)
Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here are not always consistent with those from other services.  When we are aware of substantial discrepancies, we mention them.  We also pass on any explanation that is offered, which is very rare. 

Because changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

1.  Adding to the wealth of the nation that is not reflected in these number are (a) annual currency transfers from overseas Vietnamese adds an estimated $2.5 billion into the quiet economy, while smuggling adds approximately $1.5 billion more each year. These sums are not accounted for in this tabulation of only official reports. Recent reports indicate a decline in this number in 2001, and (b) Official Development Assistance ()DA) disbursements in 2001 that are reported at $1.7 billion

2. Year 2000  [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue are from Vietnam's GSO

3. Full year (VET). 

4. The MPI through its media organ the VIR, reported different numbers.   In issue 529 published 3-9 December 2001,  November exports of $1.1 billion are claimed to bring total exports for the year to $13.8 billion, lower then the shorter period  reported by VET. VIR reports total imports grew $1.3 billion for November for a total of $14.5 billion, also substantially lower  than the sum reported by VET a month earlier. However, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) claims year 2001 exports were US$ 15.1 billion (547VIR1, 8-14Apr02).

5. First four months of current year.

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Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/ADB/IMF

1. The State reduced this figure from 7.5 to 7.1 in October 2001, which the World Bank supports.

2. First Quarter 2002 : 6.6% (VET April 2002)

Index

GDP (converted to US$ billion)   VND 1 = US$  15,000* (constant) Reported in billion dollars

* We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND as a constant.

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GDP per capita (converted to US$)  VND 1 = US$  15,000¹ (constant) 

1 We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND as a constant.

2 This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark.  VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published.  While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports "the average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time....  Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) last year, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86" (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000).  VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam.  The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.

3. It is claimed (VIR, Jan 2002 p10) that this reported range is determined under the Parity Purchase Power method (PPM).  No explanation is offered if this is the same as the United Nation's Purchase Power Parity (PPP) system, designed "to show the different levels of spending power on a country by country basis. A market basket of such items as average incomes, taxes, interest rates, insurance, utilities, gasoline, milk, newspapers and other typical expenses are compared and used to devise the PPP. The standard is based on the USA=100," or who the PPP is now made into a range and used by the State to report GDP.  For a more complete read on the PPP system developed by the United Nations, please write to VVG to receive a copy by E-mail.

Index

Foreign Capital Investment 

Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. The numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground. There is rarely an explanation offered. 

Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  or above for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

These numbers do not include ODA disbursements that in 2001 amounted to $1.7 billion and usually go towards infrastructure development.

As of March 20, 2002 (April 2002 by VET)

All Nations: Current projects number 3,174 vs. 3,102 last report]  with Total Investment Capital $38,094 billion [vs. $37,949 billion last report] and Implemented Capital of $20,838¹ billion [vs. $18.632 billion last "correct" report]. 

Where the numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves as the system lacks transparency.

Top Twenty Nations : 

1. The obvious error reported in the March 2002 issue ($32.902 billion total implemented capital) has here been corrected. The January report placed China as 22nd ranked investing nation with 131 projects, $245 million in investment capital, and $77 million in implemented capital. February's report does not change the nation's ranking (still in 22nd place) but shows China has 136 projects, $254 million in investment capital, and $12,474 billion (sic) in implemented capital. This was a clear error as China's implemented capital is now reported at US$ 85 million.  This error may have been innocent, or it was a case of cooking the books to favor China during the visit of Chinese top leader Jiang Zemin, in Vietnam at the time last month's report was published.

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Foreign Investment By Sector  Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$) 

Note: As above in Foreign Capital Investment, these numbers are the best available and are published by State controlled media. For the reasons earlier stated, they are highly suspect.  We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting. 

Where the numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month Economic Indicators for further research.  

As of  March 20, 2002 (April 2002 VET)    

1. The obvious and dramatic error reported in the February numbers for Sector Investments (reporting implemented capital in the Ag Sector) has been corrected.  The January report for agriculture & forestry showed 331 projects, $1.977 billion in investment capital, and 1.034 billion in implemented capital. February's report shows for this sector 327 projects, $1.994 billion in investment capital, and an astounding, unsupported, and quite unreliably reported $13.556 billion (sic) in implemented capital.

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 Foreign Investment By Province:  

Notes: 
1.  Accurate investment figures are not readily available, and when published, they lack transparency. There is no logical reason for apparent reporting discrepancies.  Starting in September 2000, the State again reported on Implemented Capital, earlier called Capital Committed .  Estimates of this number differ among multinational institutions but currently run at between $4 billion to $8 billion, or from 25% to 50% of the official government statistics offered here. 

2.  The numbers here vary substantially from month to month. Sometimes the number of projects and capital increase but implemented capital decreases. The reverse also happens. There is no explanation offered.

3.  Where the following numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but encourage readers to review prior reports on line as they may have the need for historical accuracy.

Top Twenty Locations by Total Capital As of March 20, 2002 (VET April 2001) 

1. Last month's obvious error in reporting Implemented capital in Bac Ninh Province is here corrected.  Last month's report showed a dramatic climb from US$ 145 million to US$ 12.647 billion. There was no corresponding report of great development there is any source. As reported in this space last month, we believed last month's report to have been in error. 

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