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This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators.  This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.   Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes,  the various Business Articles, and our Service pages in order to learn how V V G may be able to meet your specific needs.  Please write to us  with your business-related questions about how you wish to retain V V G.

Current as of  the month reported, data sources include VVG original research,  General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, and Vietnam Economic Times

WWW http://www.vvg-vietnam.com

Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange

Current Annual Rate of Inflation:  - 0.36  [Chart VET December 2001]   NOTE:  These figures were recently revised  showing a much worse, slower economic picture than before. This follows eight (8)  consecutive  months that Vietnam had a drop in growth, ending in January this year.  Generally, a drop of two consecutive quarters in the rate of inflation is the signal of recession. By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%.  By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%. See prior reports for a more complete, historical picture. 

The IMF claims annual inflation in 2001 was +0.8%, up from the -1.8% it found in 2000. Note that Vietnam's GSB does not always agree with international observers and the State quotes only those numbers that if finds favorable.

Current Rate of Exchange (exchanging cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only)
US dollar to Vietnam dong  1 : 15,065 (Nhan Dan - 14Dec01) The black market rate: buying 100 and 50 US dollar notes for VND15,200 and selling dollars for VND15,250

[Unofficial projections have been running all year that this will drop to below 16,000 before year end, a target that appears will not quite be attained. The relatively recent introduction of the VND 100,000 "brown" note worth US$6.66 at the current exchange rate, will ease, if not speed, the rate of spending. When we first arrived in January 1994 the then very new VND 20,000 "green" note was then worth US$1.90 and is now worth $1.33].

Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612;  1998 - 14,861; 1999 - n/a; 2000 - n/a

Index                                                                                                  

Balance of Trade ¹ US$ billions (VET December 2001)
Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here are not always consistent with those from other services.  Where we are aware of substantial discrepancies, we mention them.  We also pass on any explanation that is offered, which is very rare. 

Because changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

1.  Annual currency transfers from overseas Vietnamese adds an estimated $2.5 billion into the quiet economy, while smuggling adds approximately $1.5 billion more each year. These sums are not accounted for in this tabulation of only official reports. Recent reports for September 2001 indicate a recent, sharp decline in this number.

2. Year 2000  [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue are from Vietnam's GSO

3. 1st eleven months of the year (VET).

4. The MPI through its media organ the VIR, recently reported different numbers.   In issue 529 published 3-9 December 2001,  November exports of $1.1 billion are claimed to bring total exports for the year to $13.8 billion, lower then the shorter period  reported by VET. VIR reports total imports grew $1.3 billion for November for a total of $14.5 billion, also substantially lower  than the sum reported by VET a month earlier.

Index

Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/ADB/IMF

1. The State reduced this figure from 7.5 to 7.1 in October, which the World Bank supports.

Index

GDP (converted to US$ billion)   VND 1 = US$  15,000* (constant) Reported in billion dollars

* We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND as a constant.

Index

GDP per capita (converted to US$)  VND 1 = US$  15,000* (constant) Reported in actual US dollars

* We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND as a constant.
** This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark.  VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published.  While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports "the average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time....  Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) last year, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86" (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000).  VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam.  The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.

Index

Foreign Capital Investment 

Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. The numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground. There is rarely an explanation offered. 

Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

As of November 20, 2001 (December 2001 by VET)

All Nations: Current projects number 2,991 [vs. 2,943 last report]  with Total Investment Capital $37,480 billion [vs. $37,623 last report] and Implemented Capital of $18.475 billion [vs. $18.437 last report]. 

Where the numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research.  

Top Twenty Nations : 

Index

Foreign Investment By Sector  Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$) 

Note: As above in Foreign Capital Investment, these numbers are the best available and are published by State controlled media. For the reasons earlier stated, they are highly suspect.  We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting. 

Where the numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research.  

As of  November 20, 2001 (December 2001 VET)    

1.  A second and equally dramatic and unexplained increase of almost $ 3 billion was noted in reported total invested capital from November to December, following a $ 3 billion decrease from September to October. At that time there was virtually no change in number of projects or any change in implemented capital. In October, the name of the heading also changed from General Industry to Industry & Construction.  For the period October to November we noted a drop of nearly $3 billion for implemented capital in this market sector.

2. The October numbers show a dramatic and unexplained reduction is noted in the number of reported projects from 659 to 501 with minor reductions reported in invested and implemented capital.

Index

 Foreign Investment By Province:  

Notes: 
1.  Accurate investment figures are not readily available, and when published, they lack transparency. There is no logical reason for apparent reporting discrepancies.  Starting in September 2000, the State again reported on Implemented Capital, earlier called Capital Committed .  Estimates of this number differ among multinational institutions but currently run at between $4 billion to $8 billion, or from 25% to 50% of the official government statistics offered here. 

2.  The numbers here vary substantially from month to month. Sometimes the number of projects and capital increase but implemented capital decreases. The reverse also happens. There is no explanation offered.

3.  Where the following numbers increased or decreased month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but encourage readers to review prior reports on line as they may have the need for historical accuracy.

Top Twenty Locations by Total Capital As of November 20,  2001 (VET December 2001) 

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