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This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators.  This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.   Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes ,  the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn how VVG may be able to meet your specific needs.  Please write to us if you have questions.

Current as of  the month reported, data sources include VVG original research,  General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, and Vietnam Economic Times

Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange

Current Annual Rate of Inflation:  - 0.5  [Chart VET January 2001]  NOTE:  This is the seventh (8th) consecutive  month that Vietnam reports a drop in growth.  Generally, a drop of two consecutive quarters in the rate of inflation is the signal of recession. By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%.  By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%.

Current Rate of Exchange (exchanging cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only)
US dollar to Vietnam dong  1 : 14,500

[Unofficial projections are that this will drop to 16,000 this year. While Vietnam and China both deny that their currencies will drop, the dong is floating lower.  As stories are still heard that the Chinese economy is in a conservative down spiral and that the Yuan will drop below 8.3 to the dollar, we recommend investors closely watching the dong as well.]

Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612;  1998 - 14,861; 1999 - n/a; 2000 - n/a

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Balance of Trade ¹ US$ billions (VET January 2001)

1.  Annual currency transfers from overseas Vietnamese adds an estimated $2.5 billion into the quiet economy, while smuggling adds approximately $1.5 billion more each year. These sums are not accounted for in this tabulation of only official reports.

2. Year 2000  [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue are from Vietnam's GSO

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Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/Asian Development Bank

1.  We cite these statistics for reference purposes. While the Ministry of Finance claims solid growth in the year 2000, international observers report  that the economy of Vietnam is slowing this year.
a. MOF  - 4.5% - VET - May 2000
b. MOF - 6.7% - VET - December 2000 
c. MOF - 6.75%; World Bank - 5.8%; IMF - 5.5% -  In a major report last month, the World Bank called Hanoi's long range target of a doubling of GDP and the creation of 15 million new jobs by 2010 "ambitious but attainable, provided it adopted bold and wide-ranging economic reforms. Reuters 12/26/00

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GDP (converted to US$ billion)   VND 1 = US$  14,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars

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GDP per capita (converted to US$)  VND 1 = US$  14,000 (constant) Reported in actual US dollars

* This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark.  VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published.  While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports "the average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time....  Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) last year, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86" (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000).  VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam.  The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.

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Foreign Capital Investment 

All Nations: Current projects number 2,609 [vs. 2,514 last report]  with Total Investment Capital $35.57 billion [vs. $35.66 last report] and Implemented Capital of $16.82 billion [vs. $16.576 last report] (VET-January 2001).  This is a substantial change showing 95 new projects with a net loss of total invested capital of $90 million.  

Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. There is rarely an explanation offered. However, these are the most current and best data available from public sources, even thought their accuracy is highly suspect. 

Following our December 1999 Economic Indicator, the overall number of projects as reported by VET  jumped dramatically (from 1,802 to  2,855) while the number of dollars invested increased by less than $2 billion.  There were no contemporary reports of any dramatic, year end boost in foreign investment to justify a difference of those proportions.

Until September 2000, the number of projects appeared to have been increasing month to month while the Total Capital did not correspondingly increase, and often was seen to decrease.   In September and again October 2000, the number of overall projects for the first time appear to have decreased.  

In addition, the Total Implemented Capital is now once more being published. While we would normally refer Implemented Capital as "steel in the ground," due to the consistent over-valuation of land (often the sole contribution by the Vietnamese side in Joint Venture projects that still make up more than 65% of all FDI forms), this number is not considered accurate. Estimates differ among multinational institutions on the actual value of "steel in the ground," but currently run at between $4 billion to $8 billion, or from 25% to 50% of the official government statistics offered here.

It can be said that the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we are no longer tracking the changes by for each nation, but encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line - see top of page - for such details as they may need. We note that from month to month numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground.  As of 15 October 2000:

Top Twelve Nations (January 2001 by VET)  

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Foreign Investment By Sector  Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$) (December 2000 VET)   Note: VET has changed the format of its reports in this area.  As noted above  Foreign Capital Investment, these numbers are the best available and are published by State controlled media. For the reasons earlier stated, they are highly suspect.  We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting. As of 15 November 2000:

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Foreign Investment By Province: Top Ten Locations by Total Capital. (VET October 2000)) 

NOTES: 
1.  Accurate investment figures are not readily available, and when published, they lack transparency. There is no logical reason for apparent reporting discrepancies.  Starting in September 2000, the State again reported on Implemented Capital, earlier called Capital Committed .  Estimates differ among multinational institutions but currently run at between $4 billion to $8 billion, or from 25% to 50% of the official government statistics offered here. 

2.  The numbers here vary substantially from from month to month. Sometimes the number of projects and capital increase but implemented capital decreases. There is no explanation offered.

3.  We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting.

As of 15 November 2000

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