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This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators.  This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.   Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes ,  the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn how VVG may be able to meet your specific needs.  Please write to us if you have questions.

Current as of  the month reported, data sources include VVG original research,  General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, and Vietnam Economic Times

Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange

Current Annual Rate of Inflation:  - 0.2  [Chart VET October 2000]  NOTE:  This is the fourth month in a row that Vietnam reports a drop in actual growth.  Generally, a drop of two consecutive quarters in the rate of inflation is the signal of recession. By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%.  In 1993 that rate dropped to 12.7%.

Current Rate of Exchange (exchanging cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only)
US dollar to Vietnam dong  1 : 14,250

[Unofficial projections remain that this will drop to 15,000 or 16,000 this year. While Vietnam and China both deny that their currencies will drop, the dong is floating lower.  As stories are still heard that the Chinese economy is in a conservative down spiral and that the Yuan will drop below 8.3 to the dollar, we recommend investors closely watching the dong as well.]

Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612;  1998 - 14,861; 1999 - n/a; 2000 - n/a

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Balance of Trade ¹ US$ billions (1999 forecast figures: VET)

1.  Annual currency transfers from overseas Vietnamese adds an estimated $2.5 billion into the quiet economy, while smuggling adds approximately $1.5 billion more each year. These sums are not accounted for in this tabulation of only official reports.

2.  First 8 months in 2000 [VET October 2000]. * This number has been virtually constant for three months running.

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Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

GDP Growth (%)                                                     Government Statistics Bureau/Asian Development Bank

1. VET - May 2000 - we cite this for reference purposes, in light of reports by others that the economy of Vietnam is slowing this year.
2. VET - August 2000, first half
3. World Bank - July 2000

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GDP (converted to US$ billion)   VND 1 = US$  14,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars

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GDP per capita (converted to US$)  VND 1 = US$  14,000 (constant) Reported in actual $ (VBJ/VET July 2000)

* The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark.  VBJ, an early source of our numbers, is no longer publishing these numbers.  While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review - a publication of the MPI - reports "the average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time....  Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) last year, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86" (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000).  VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam.  The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.

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Foreign Capital Investment 

All Nations: 2,498  projects with Total Investment Capital $35.66 billion and Implemented Capital of $16.295 billion (VET - October 2000).  This is a substantial change from our September Economics Indicator based on August figures.  

Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. There is rarely an explanation offered. However, these are the most current and best data available from public sources, even thought their accuracy is highly suspect. 

Following our December 1999 Economic Indicator, the overall number of projects as reported by VET  jumped dramatically (from 1,802 to  2,855) while the number of dollars invested increased by less than $2 billion.  There were no contemporary reports of any dramatic, year end boost in foreign investment to justify a difference of those proportions.

Until September 2000, the number of projects appeared to have been increasing month to month while the Total Capital did not correspondingly increase, and often was seen to decrease.   In September and again October 2000, the number of overall projects for the first time appear to have decreased.  

In addition, the Total Implemented Capital is now once more being published. While we would normally refer Implemented Capital as "steel in the ground," due to the consistent over-valuation of land (often the sole contribution by the Vietnamese side in Joint Venture projects that still make up more than 65% of all FDI forms), this number is not considered accurate. Estimates differ among multinational institutions on the actual value of "steel in the ground," but currently run at between $4 billion to $8 billion, or from 25% to 50% of the official government statistics offered here.

It can be said that the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we are no longer tracking the changes by for each nation, but encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line - see top of page - for such details as they may need. As of 15 September 2000:

Top Twelve Nations (October 2000 by VET)  

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Foreign Investment By Sector  Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$) (October 2000 VET)   Note: VET has changed the format of its reports in this area.  As noted above  Foreign Capital Investment, these numbers are the best available and are published by State controlled media. For the reasons earlier stated, they are highly suspect.  We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting. As of 15 September 2000:

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Foreign Investment By Province: Top Ten Locations by Total Capital. (VET October 2000)) 

NOTES: 
1.  Accurate investment figures are not readily available, and when published, they lack transparency. There is no logical reason for apparent reporting discrepancies.  For the first time in many months, there are now official reports on Implemented Capital, earlier called Capital Committed .  Estimates differ among multinational institutions but currently run at between $4 billion to $8 billion, or from 25% to 50% of the official government statistics offered here. 

2.  The numbers here vary substantially from earlier numbers reported.  There has been no explanation offered.

3.  We encourage readers to review archived monthly reports as they may have the need to review the accuracy of reporting.

As of 15 September 2000

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