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VVG - VIETNAM VENTURE GROUP, Inc.Economic IndicatorsCopyright © 1999 - 1997-2008 Venture Group, Inc. Updated June 14, 2000 |
This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators. This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam. Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes , the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn how VVG may be able to meet your specific needs. Please write to us if you have questions.
Current as of the month reported, data sources include VVG original research, General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, and Vietnam Economic Times
| October
1998 | December
1998 January 1999 | March 1999 April 1999 | May 1999 | June 1999 July 1999 | August 1999 |
Archives Links to earlier economic reports are found here | September
1999 | October
1999 November
1999 | December
1999 | January
2000 | February
2000 March 2000 | April 2000 | May 2000 |
Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange
Current Annual Rate of Inflation: 0.1% [Chart VET May 2000] NOTE: This is the lowest rate since October 1999 when for that month alone a negative 0.8% was reported.
| January 2000 | February 2000 | March 2000 | April 2000 |
| 0.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 |
| 14.4 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 9.2 | 0.7 |
Current Rate of Exchange (exchanging cash
in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only)
US dollar to Vietnam dong 1 : 14,100
[Unofficial projections remain that this will drop to 15,000 or 16,000 this year. While Vietnam and China both deny that their currencies will drop, the dong is floating lower. As stories are still heard that the Chinese economy is in a conservative down spiral and that the Yuan will drop below 8.3 to the dollar, we recommend investors closely watching the dong as well.]
Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612; 1998 - 14,861; 1999 - n/a; 2000 - n/a
Balance of Trade 1 US$ billions (1999 forecast figures: VET)
| 2000 (f) | 2000 (rpt)2 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 | 1994 | |
| Exports | 3.85 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 | |
| Imports | 4.10 | 12.01 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 5.3 | |
| Balance |
- 0.25 | - 0.2 | - 2.0 | - 2.3 | - 4.0 | - 2.3 | - 1.2 |
1. Annual currency transfers from overseas Vietnamese adds an estimated $2.5 billion into the quiet economy, while smuggling adds approximately $1.5 billion more each year. These sums are not accounted for in this tabulation of only official reports.
2. First four (4) months in 2000 [VET].
Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)
| 2000 (f) | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| 6.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 22.2 |
Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)
| 2000 (f) | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| 7.0 | 4.0 | 9.2 | 3.6 |
GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/Asian Development Bank
| 2000 | 1999 1 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 5.62 / 4.5 (f) | 4.8 | 5.8 / 4.0 | 8.8 / 8.2 | 9.34 | 9.54 |
1. VET - May 2000
2. VET - June 2000, first quarter
GDP (converted to US$ billion) VND 1 = US$ 14,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars
| 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 28.3 | 26 | 25 | 23.2 | 15.917 |
GDP per capita (converted to US$) VND 1 = US$ 14,000 (constant) Reported in actual $ (vbj)
| 2000 (f) | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| n/a | 362 | 332 | 315 | 301 | 214.29 |
All Nations: 2,964 projects with Total Investment Capital $36.7 billion (VET - May 2000). The numbers reported here are the most current and best data available from public sources, and their accuracy is highly suspect. Vietnam Investment Review, a publication of the MPI, no longer reports these numbers for any cross reference.
Note: readers of these pages should note and compare prior months' reports. All publication in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing. The number of projects seem to be increasing month to month (see Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Britain, and the United States numbers from only March 2000) while the Total Capital changes or does not. As for Thailand, the number of projects increased from 76 to 122 while the Total Capital decreased by $100 million.
In addition, note that following the December 1999 Economic Indicator, the overall number of projects as reported by VET jumped dramatically (from 1,802 to 2,855) while the number of dollars invested increased by less than $2 billion. It is also noted that there was no dramatic, year end boost in foreign investment to justify a difference of these proportions.
Other gross changes from the immediate prior month's report that appear inconsistent and without explanation are noted with an asterisk (*).
Top Twelve Nations (June 2000 by VET)
| Rank |
Nation |
Number of Projects |
Total Capital (US$) |
Rank |
Nation |
Number of Projects |
Total Capital (US$) |
| 1 | Singapore | 244 | 7.33b | 7 | France | 104 | 1.77b* |
| 2 | Taiwan | 590* | 4.78b | 8 | Br.Virgin Islands | 88 | 1.71b |
| 3 | Hong Kong* | 279* | 4.66b | 9 | Malaysia | 73 | 1.57b |
| 4 | Japan | 316 | 3.80b* | 10 | Russia | 41 | 1.49b |
| 5 | Republic Korea | 280 | 3.49b | 11 | Thailand | 105 | 1.17b |
| 6 | United States | 112 | 2.02b | 12 | Britain | 31 | 1.12b |
Foreign Investment By Sector Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$) (June 2000 VET) Note: as reported in December's Economic Indicator, the number of projects as reported by VET grew dramatically (> 1,000) from the prior month while the number of dollars reportedly invested increased by less than $2 billion. However, there was no report, and certainly no indication, of any dramatic, year end boost in direct foreign investment to justify a difference of such proportions. The numbers reported below must therefore be highly suspect. Changes since the prior month's report are noted with an asterisk (*).
|
Sector |
# of Projects | Total Invested |
Sector |
# of Projects | Total Invested |
| General Industry | 1,563* | 12.16b | Agriculture & Forestry | 261 | 1.07b |
| Hotels & Tourism | 305 | 8.09b | Services | 148* | 845.9m |
| Construction | 278* | 7.21 | Fisheries | 92 | 343.8m |
| Transport,
Communication and Post |
135 | 3.20b | Finance & Banking | 34 | 233.3m |
| Oil & Gas | 61 | 3.06b | Others | 91* | 489.8m |
Construction was added as a new category in February 2000. Categories now eliminated from the above list (see archives of Economic Reports) are Industrial Zones, Export Processing Zones, and Housing Development.
Foreign
Investment By Province: Top Ten Locations by Total
Investment Capital. (VET May 2000 )(VIR 8-14May00)
NOTES: Accurate figures for are not readily available. There is no
logical reason for apparent reporting discrepancies. There are no longer any
official reports on actual Capital Committed . Estimates differ among
multinational institutions but currently run at between $4 billion to $8
billion.
(1) These figures are reported by Vietnam Economic Times (VET). The month to month data is not always consistent. (2) These figures are reported by Vietnam Investment Review (VIR). The month to month data is not always consistent. VET and VIR figures are rarely the same. (3) Year to date (ytd) investments are reported by VET. Inconsistent changes (in project numbers or investment dollars w/o corresponding change in both) from the prior month are marked with an asterisk (*). (4) The change noted from the prior month (in parentheticals) of total numbers of projects is not matched by a corresponding change in overall projects in the Sector Report, above.
|
Province |
Total |
Total Investment |
Total
Investment (US$ b) 2 as of 4Apr00 |
Number
of Investments ytd 3, 4 as of 17May00 |
Total
Invested US$b3 as of 17May00 |
|
| 1 | HCMC | 1010* | 10.56 | 9.781 | 28 (+4) | 10.5 |
| 2 | Hanoi | 436* | 7.47 | 8.102 | 4 (+3) | 7.47 |
| 3 | Dong Nai | 288* | 3.19 | 4.479 | 2 (+2) | 3.19 |
| 4 | BaRia-Vung Tau | 97 | 2.52 | 1.298 | 1 | 2.52 |
| 5 | Binh Duong | 297* | 1.74 | 1.981 | 29 (+3) | 1.74 |
| 6 | Hai Phong | 111 | 1.37 | 1.343 | 1 | 1.37 |
| 7 | Quang Ngai | 8 | 1.33 | 1.328 | 0 | 1.33 |
| 8 | Quang Ninh | 52 | 0.847 | 0.889 | 0 | 0.874 |
| 9 | Lam Dong | 49 | 0.865 | 0.848 | 1 (+1) | 0.865 |
| 10 | Da Nang | 61 | 0.786 | 0.438 | 1 | 0.786 |
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