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VVG - VIETNAM VENTURE GROUP, Inc.

Economic Indicators

Copyright © 1999 - 1997-2008 Venture Group, Inc.   Updated  February 4, 2000

This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators.  This is  the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.   Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes ,  the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn how VVG may be of able to meet your specific needs.  Please write to us

February 2000
Current Report

Rates of Inflation, Exchange, and Debt
Balance of Trade
Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports
Changes in Consumer Prices
GDP Growth (%)
GDP (converted to US$)
GDP per capita (converted to US$)
Foreign Capital Investment
Foreign Investment By Sector
Foreign Investment By Province

Current as of  the month reported, data sources include VVG original research,  General Statistical Office, MPI, Vietnam Investment Review, Vietnam Economic Times, and Vietnam Business Journal

October 1998
December 1998
January 1999
March 1999
April 1999
May 1999
June 1999
Archives
Links to earlier reports are found here
July 1999
August 1999
September 1999
October 1999
November 1999
December 1999 
January 2000

 

Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange

Current Annual Rate of Inflation:  2.0%  [Chart VET Feb 1000]  NOTE:  This report changed remarkably between December 1999 and January 2000, and appears to be a much more accurate reflection of the inflation numbers for 1999

Apr 99 May 99 Jun  99 Jul  99 Aug  99 Sept  99 Oct  99 Nov  99 Dec 99
2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.2 - 0.8 - 0.4 0.5

 

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Jan  99 Feb 99 Mar 99
14.4 12.7 4.5 3.8 9.2 1.7 3.6 2.9

Current Rate of Exchange (exchanging cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only)
US dollar to Vietnam dong  1 : 14,040

  [Unofficial projections are that this will drop to 15,000 or 16,000 this year. While Vietnam and China both deny that their currencies will drop, the dong is floating lower.  As stories are still heard that the Chinese Yuan will drop below 8.3 to the dollar, we recommend investors closely watching the dong as well.]

Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612;  1998 - 14,861; 1999 - n/a

Index                                                                                                  

 

 

Balance of Trade 1 US$ billions (1999 forecast figures: VET)

2000 (f) 2000 (rpt) 1999 (f) 1999 (rpt) 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994
Exports 10.0 10.234 9.4 8.9 7.1 5.2 4.1
Imports 11.5 10.347 11.4 11.2 11.1 7.5 5.3
Balance (+ -) 1.5 0.1132 2.0 2.3 4.0 2.3 1.2

1.  Annual currency transfers from overseas Vietnamese adds an estimated $2.5 billion into the quiet economy, while smuggling adds approximately $1.5 billion more each year. These sums are not accounted for in this tabulation of only official reports.

2.  First ten months in 1999 [VIR].

Index

 

Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

2000 (f) 1999 (f) 1998 1997
6.9 5.0 3.9 22.2

 

Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

2000 (f) 1999 (f) 1998 1997
7.0 8.0 9.2 3.6

GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/Asian Development Bank

2000 (f) 1999 (f)1 1998 1997 1996 1995
n/a / 4.5 4.3 / 3.7 5.8 / 4.0 8.8 / 8.2 9.34 9.54

1. First four months of 1999 GDP reported at 4.0%

Index

 

GDP (converted to US$ billion)   VND 1 = US$  14,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars

1999 (f) 1998 1997 1996 1995
n/a 26 25 23.2 15.917

Index

 

GDP per capita (converted to US$)  VND 1 = US$  14,000 (constant) Reported in actual $ (vbj)

2000 (f) 1999  1998 1997 1996 1995
n/a n/a 332 315 301 214.29

Index

 

Foreign Capital Investment 

All Nations: (1,802)  2,855 projects with Total Investment Capital ($34.08)  $36.26 billion (Dec VETNote: since December's Economic Indicator, the number of projects as reported by VET (in parentheticals) has jumped dramatically (> 1,000) while the number of dollars invested has increased by > $2 billion. These numbers are highly suspect. There has been no indication of any dramatic, year end boost in direct or size foreign investment to justify a difference of such proportions.

Top Twelve Nations (January 2000 by VET)  

Rank

Nation

Number of
Projects
Total Capital (US$)

Rank

Nation

Number of
Projects
Total Capital (US$)
1 Singapore 238 5.75b 7 Br.Virgin Islands 79 1.68b
2 Taiwan 554 4.7b 8 Russia 61 1.52b
3 Japan 311 3.49b 9 United States 107 1.3b
4 Hong Kong 314 3.34b 10 Britain 37 1.13b
5 Republic Korea 271 3.08b 11 Malaysia 79 1.09b
6 France 149 1.95b 12 Thailand 76 1.1b

Index

Foreign Investment By Sector  Total Foreign Investment by Sector (US$) (Dec VET)   Note: since December's Economic Indicator, the number of projects as reported by VET  has jumped dramatically (> 1,000) while the number of dollars invested has increased by > $2 billion. These numbers are highly suspect. There has been no indication of any dramatic, year end boost in direct or size foreign investment to justify a difference of such proportions.

Sector

# of Projects Total Invested

Sector

# of Projects Total Invested
General Industry 1,463 11.71b Agriculture & Forestry 259 1.07b
Hotels & Tourism 302 8.2b Services 142 823.4m
Construction (new) 275 7.21 Fisheries 92 340.7m
Transport, Communication and Post 135 3.2b Finance & Banking 34 233.3m
Oil & Gas 61 3.06b Others 92 356.7m

Construction is the only new category added.  The following categories have been eliminated from the above list.  The numbers below were reported in December 1999 Economics Indicators

Industrial Zones 16 3.06b
Export Processing Zones 60 202.68
Housing Development 28 90.92m

 

Index

 

Foreign Investment By Province: Top Ten Locations by Total Investment Capital. 
NOTES: (1) These figures are as reported by the MPI in the Vietnam Investment Review, and do not always reflect the same data as is available in the reported provinces.  (2) Earlier reports on these pages showed total licensed projects and did NOT account for licenses that are no longer operative. (3) Total investment capital is paid-in capital (referred to in Vietnam as Legal Capital) plus all loans needed for the life of a project as projected at the time of licensing, or  as a company's charter may be subsequently amended.  This is quite different from "steel-in-the-ground" (referred to in Vietnam as total capital committed).   (4) Accurate figures for Capital Committed are not readily available.  Estimates differ among multilateral institutions but currently run at between $4 billion to $8 billion. (5) VIR ceased publishing total invested projects after June 1999 (totals as of June 1999 are repeated but in gray print). Since then, only total 1999 investments are reported.  (6) Figures as of 10 October 1999

Province

Number of projects 5

Total Investment
(US$ b) 5

1999 Number of Investments 6 1999 Investments US$ millions 6
HCMC 582 9.5 60 240.57
Hanoi 282 6.9 20 241.79
Dong Nai 192 3.1 10 26.35
BaRia-Vung Tau 50 2.3 3 45.25
Hai Phong 68 1.3 8 33.05
Binh Duong 137 1.3 39 217.03
Lam Dong 33 848 m 2 3.10
Quang Ninh 26 825 m 5 8.15
Da Nang 42 779 m 2 1.58
Hai Duong 21 485 m n/a n/a

Index

Additional data is found on the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam website.   When you arrive there, click onto the Business page.  http://www.amchamvn.com .


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