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V V G ~ Economic Indicators

Copyright © 1999 - 2008 Vietnam Venture Group, Inc.®    Updated June 02, 2008

This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators.  This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.   Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes ,  the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn more about Vietnam and V V G.  Please write to us  with your business-related questions when you consider a project in Vietnam and want to know more about us.
 

Special Report on extraordinary ballooning of 2008 rate of Inflation

MAY 2008

Current Report Of Vietnam's Economic Indicators

Rates of Inflation, Exchange, and Debt
Balance of Trade
Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports
Changes in Consumer Prices
GDP Growth (%)
GDP (converted to US$)
GDP per capita (converted to US$)
Foreign Capital Investment
Foreign Investment By Sector
Foreign Investment By Province

Industrial Zones Of Vietnam

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Current as of  the month reported, data sources include VVG original research,  General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, Saigon Times Weekly, and Vietnam Economic Times.  Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves and is really anyone's guess, as the system lacks transparency.

Prior  On-Line Issues Of
V V G ~ Economic Indicators

January 2008| February 2008| | March 2008 |  April 2008 |

October 1998 through December 2007

Note 1: Economics Indicators for April 2008 was not published.

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Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange

Current Annual Rate of Inflation: See Special Report (2008)f: Year 2008 to date: 5.8% [Chart VET April 2008]   By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%.  By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%. See prior reports  or above for a more complete, historical picture

Current and Recent monthly rates of inflation:

January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 1 June 2008
2.3 6.0 9.2 11.6 25.2 -

 

July 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 November 2007 December 2007
6.2 6.8 7.3 8.2 9.4 12.6
January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 April 2007 May 2007 June 2007
1.0 2.1 3.2 3.5 4.3 5.7

July 2006

August 2006

September 2006

October 2006

November 2006

December 2006

4.4 4.8 5.1 5.4 6.0 6.6
January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006
1.2 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.0

July 2005

August 2005

September 2005

October 2005

November 2005

December 2005

5.6 6.0 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.4
January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005
1.1 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.2

July 2004

August 2004

September 2004

October 2004

November 2004

December 2004

7.7 8.3 8.6 8.6 8.8 9.5

January 2004

February 2004

March 2004

April 2004

May 2004

June 2004

1.1

4.1 4.9 5.4 6.3 7.2
July 2003 August 2003 September 2003 October 2003 November 2003 December 2003
1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 2.2 3.0
January 2003 February 2003 March 2003 April 2003 May 2003 June 2003
0.9 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1
July 2002 August 2002 September 2002 October 2002 November 2002 December 2002
2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 4.0
January 2002 February 2002 March 2002 April 2002 May 2002 June 2002
1.1 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.9
July 2001 August 2001 September 2001 October 2001 November 2001 December 2001
- 0.9 - 0.9 - 0.4 - 0.4 - 0.2 0.8
January 2001 February 2001 March 2001 April 2001 May 2001 June 2001
0.3 0.4 0.0 - 0.5 - 0.7 - 0.7
July 2000 August 2000 September 2000 October 2000 November 2000 December 2000
-1.6 -1.5 -1.7 -1.6 - 0.7 - 0.6

NOTES:
1. See IHT http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/27/business/AS-FIN-ECO-Vietnam-Inflation.php  and V V G Special Report by clicking here.

Historical annual rates of inflation:

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004 2005 2006

14.4

12.7

4.5

3.8

9.2

0.7

- 0.5

- 0.3

2.9

3.0

2.7 5.3 4.1

 

Current Rate of Exchange (Domestic buying VND using cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only) US dollar to Vietnam dong  1 : 16,086 (VNN, 02Mayl08) prior report 1:16,094.  The black market rate: buying 100 and 50 US dollar notes soared to 19,000 before settling back to 17,500 as of this report.

Interbank Rate  Monday, June 02, 2008  http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic

1 US Dollar = 16,456 Vietnamese Dong  

[The introduction in year 2001 of the VND 100,000 "brown" (now green) note worth US$ 6.04 at the current exchange rate, helps to ease, if not speed, the rate of spending.  The new VND 500,000 "brown" note is now worth about US$ 31.15.  When we first arrived in January 1994 the standard bank note was the VND 5,000 note while the largest bank note was the then very new VND 20,000 "green" bill, then worth US$1.90 and now convertible at $1.19 at the prevailing Interbank rate].

Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612;  1998 - 10.8; 1999 - 11.1;
2000 - 13.9;  2001 - 14.4;  20021 - 12,500

1. Gross external debt is put at US$14.0 billion or 38% of gross domestic product (GDP), reportedly mainly made up of low-interest ODA lending. Net external debt is put at 18.5% of currency external receipt. (Source Fitch Report via STW)

Index                                                                                                  

 

Balance of Trade US$ billions (VET May 2008 and other public reports)
Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here are not always consistent with those from other services.  When we are aware of substantial discrepancies, we mention them.  We also pass on any explanation that is offered, which is very rare

Because changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

 

2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

2003

2002

2001

20001

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

Exports

18.10 48.39 38.90 16.87 24.56

12.61

16.23

16.74

13.06/14.31

11.9

9.4

8.9

7.1

5.2

4.1

Imports

26.15 60.83 44.35 18.95 29.36

14.79

18.26

17.70

14.63/15.2

12.01

11.4

11.2

11.1

7.5

5.3

Balance

-8.05 - 12.4 - 5.45 - 2.08 - 4.80

-2.18

- 2.03

- 1.0

- 1.6

- 0.2

- 2.0

- 2.3

- 4.0

- 2.3

- 1.2

1.  Year 2000  [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue are from Vietnam's GSO
 

 Index

Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

2005 2004 2003 20022001 2000 1999  1998 1997
nana na na na6.9 4.5 3.9 22.2

Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (Dec 04 VET)

2005 (f) 2004 2003 20022001 2000 1999 1998 1997
6.0 9.0 4.0 3.8- 0.4 7.0 4.0 9.2 3.6

GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/ADB/IMF/UPI

2010 (f)20082 (f) 2007 2 2006 20052004 2003 2002  20011 2000  1999  1998 1997 1996 1995
double year 2000 7.0 8.4 8.27.5 7.7 7.25 4.47.1/ 7.0/4.75 6.75/5.5 4.8  5.8 / 4.0 8.8 / 8.2 9.34 9.54

1. The State reduced this figure from 7.5 to 7.1 in October 2001, which the World Bank supports.
2.  The Ministry of Finance
http://www.mof.gov.vn/DefaultE.aspx?tabid=356&ItemID=49786

Index

 

GDP (converted to US$)   US$ 1 = VND 15,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars

20051 2004 20032002 2001 2000 1999  1998 1997 1996 1995
53.1 35.3 33.7 32.89 32.9 28.19 26.41 26.0 24.27 21.65 14.86

1. US Department of State

Index

 

GDP per capita household consumption (converted to US$)  VND 1 = US$  16,0001 (constant) 

2006 (f)6 20055 20044 2002 20013 2000 1999  1998 1997 1996 1995
720 638 564 394 375-1,875  363 2 339 311 295 282 200

1 as of 1 September 2005. We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND and at 15,000 VND as constants. Thus when looking at the actual GDP per capita for 1995 at the time, please first convert to VND at the current rate and then use the  rate of conversion then current (11,500 to 1) for US$ 278.26

2 This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark.  VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published.  While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports:

 [The average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time....  Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) in 1999, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86. (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000). 

VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam.  The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.

3. It is claimed (VIR, Jan 2002 p10) that this reported range is determined under the Parity Purchase Power method (PPM). 

  • No explanation is offered if this is the same as the United Nation's Purchase Power Parity (PPP) system, designed "to show the different levels of spending power on a country by country basis. A market basket of such items as average incomes, taxes, interest rates, insurance, utilities, gasoline, milk, newspapers and other typical expenses are compared and used to devise the PPP. The standard is based on the USA=100," or who the PPP is now made into a range and used by the State to report GDP. 
  • The CIA defines GDP as the value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year and computed on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) rather than value as measured on the basis of the rate of exchange.
  • The World Bank reports that in 2001 per capita household consumption (in constant 1995 US dollars) was $256. Household consumption includes expenditures of individuals, households, and nongovernmental organizations on goods and services, excluding purchases of dwellings.

 For a more complete read on the PPP system developed by the United Nations, please write to VVG to receive a copy by E-mail.

The more widely accepted sum for year 2001 is $399.

4.  Source: Ministry of Finance, as reported in the 726VIR4 September 12-18, 2005 that also reports Per Capita Income for the same period at US$ 384

5. US Department of State

6. BKK Post 18 Oct 06, quoting PM Dung.

Index

 

Foreign Capital Investment 1

Caveat: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. The numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground. There is rarely an explanation offered. 

Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  or above for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

These numbers do not include ODA disbursements that in 2004 has been variably reported but in the range of  $2.8 billion. This has been increased to $3.4 billion for 2005. Despite its fast-growing economy, averaging seven per cent a year, the country still relies on foreign aid to build schools, clinics, road and power grids. $25 billion was earlier pledged from 1999 to 2003.

As of April 22, 2008 (May 2008 VET8.753 [vs. 8.590 last month]  with Total Investment Capital US$ 87.595 billion [vs. $83.104 billion last month] and Implemented Capital of US$ 29.234 billion [vs. $29.236 last month]. 

Where the numbers increase or decrease month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves as the system lacks transparency.

Top Twenty Foreign Direct Investor Nations : 

Rank2

Nation

Number of
Projects

Total Capital (US$b)

Implemented Capital  (US$b)

Rank2

Nation

Number of
Projects

Total Capital (US$b)

Implemented Capital (US$b)

1

Rep. of Korea

1,903+

14.718+

2.721-

11

Cayman Is.

32+

1.971+

0.595

2

Singapore

559+

11.885+