V V G ~ Economic Indicators
Copyright © 1999 - 2007 Vietnam Venture Group, Inc.® Updated March 20, 2008
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V V G ~ Economic Indicators Copyright © 1999 - 2007 Vietnam Venture Group, Inc.® Updated March 20, 2008 |
This space provides the
latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators. This
is for the most part the official government picture on the economic
climate in Vietnam. Please read this data in conjunction with
Vietnam
Vignettes , the various Business
Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn more about Vietnam and V V
G. Please
write to
us with your business-related questions when you
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Current as of the month reported, data sources include VVG original research, General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, Saigon Times Weekly, and Vietnam Economic Times. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves and is really anyone's guess, as the system lacks transparency.
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Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange
Current Annual Rate of Inflation: 9.0% (2008)f: Year 2008 to date: 4.2% [Chart VET March 2008] By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%. By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%. See prior reports or above for a more complete, historical picture.
Current and Recent monthly rates of inflation:
| January 2008 | February 2008 | March 2008 | April 2008 | May 2008 | June 2008 |
| 2.3 | 6.0 | - | - | - | - |
| July 2007 | August 2007 | September 2007 | October 2007 | November 2007 | December 2007 |
| 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 12.6 |
| January 2007 | February 2007 | March 2007 | April 2007 | May 2007 | June 2007 |
| 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 5.7 |
|
July 2006 |
August 2006 |
September 2006 |
October 2006 |
November 2006 |
December 2006 |
| 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 6.6 |
| January 2006 | February 2006 | March 2006 | April 2006 | May 2006 | June 2006 |
| 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
|
July 2005 |
August 2005 |
September 2005 |
October 2005 |
November 2005 |
December 2005 |
| 5.6 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 8.4 |
| January 2005 | February 2005 | March 2005 | April 2005 | May 2005 | June 2005 |
| 1.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 5.2 |
|
July 2004 |
August 2004 |
September 2004 |
October 2004 |
November 2004 |
December 2004 |
| 7.7 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 9.5 |
|
January 2004 |
February 2004 |
March 2004 |
April 2004 |
May 2004 |
June 2004 |
|
1.1 |
4.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7.2 |
| July 2003 | August 2003 | September 2003 | October 2003 | November 2003 | December 2003 |
| 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| January 2003 | February 2003 | March 2003 | April 2003 | May 2003 | June 2003 |
| 0.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| July 2002 | August 2002 | September 2002 | October 2002 | November 2002 | December 2002 |
| 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| January 2002 | February 2002 | March 2002 | April 2002 | May 2002 | June 2002 |
| 1.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| July 2001 | August 2001 | September 2001 | October 2001 | November 2001 | December 2001 |
| - 0.9 | - 0.9 | - 0.4 | - 0.4 | - 0.2 | 0.8 |
| January 2001 | February 2001 | March 2001 | April 2001 | May 2001 | June 2001 |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | - 0.5 | - 0.7 | - 0.7 |
| July 2000 | August 2000 | September 2000 | October 2000 | November 2000 | December 2000 |
| -1.6 | -1.5 | -1.7 | -1.6 | - 0.7 | - 0.6 |
Historical annual rates of inflation:
|
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 | 2005 | 2006 |
|
14.4 |
12.7 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
9.2 |
0.7 |
- 0.5 |
- 0.3 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
2.7 | 5.3 | 4.1 |
Current Rate of Exchange (Domestic buying VND using cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only) US dollar to Vietnam dong 1 : 15,990 (The State Bank of VietNam, 20March08) prior report 1:16,077. The black market rate: buying 100 and 50 US dollar notes for approximately 250 VND/US$ more, and selling dollars for 350 VND/US$ more, than the quoted official rate.
| Interbank
Rate Thursday, March 20,
2008 http://www.oanda.com/convert/classic
1 US Dollar = 16,021 Vietnamese Dong |
[The introduction in year 2001 of the VND 100,000 "brown" (now green) note worth US$ 6.04 at the current exchange rate, helps to ease, if not speed, the rate of spending. The new VND 500,000 "brown" note is now worth about US$ 31.15. When we first arrived in January 1994 the standard bank note was the VND 5,000 note while the largest bank note was the then very new VND 20,000 "green" bill, then worth US$1.90 and now convertible at $1.19 at the prevailing Interbank rate].
Outstanding
External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612; 1998 - 10.8; 1999 - 11.1;
2000 - 13.9;
2001 - 14.4; 20021 - 12,500
1. Gross external debt is put at US$14.0 billion or 38% of gross domestic product (GDP), reportedly mainly made up of low-interest ODA lending. Net external debt is put at 18.5% of currency external receipt. (Source Fitch Report via STW)
Balance of
Trade US$ billions (VET
March 2008 and other public reports)
Note:
All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and
State propagandizing. The numbers reported here are not always consistent
with those from other services. When we are aware of substantial
discrepancies, we mention them. We also pass on any explanation that is
offered, which is very rare.
Because changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line for such historic details as they may need. This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.
|
|
2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
2003 |
2002 |
2001 |
20001 |
1999 |
1998 |
1997 |
1996 |
1995 |
1994 |
|
Exports |
8.711 | 48.39 | 38.90 | 16.87 | 24.56 |
12.61 |
16.23 |
16.74 |
13.06/14.31 |
11.9 |
9.4 |
8.9 |
7.1 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
|
Imports |
12.99 | 60.83 | 44.35 | 18.95 | 29.36 |
14.79 |
18.26 |
17.70 |
14.63/15.2 |
12.01 |
11.4 |
11.2 |
11.1 |
7.5 |
5.3 |
|
Balance |
- 4.28 | - 12.4 | - 5.45 | - 2.08 | - 4.80 |
-2.18 |
- 2.03 |
- 1.0 |
- 1.6 |
- 0.2 |
- 2.0 |
- 2.3 |
- 4.0 |
- 2.3 |
- 1.2 |
1.
Year 2000 [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue
are from Vietnam's GSO
Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)
| 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| na | na | na | na | na | 6.9 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 22.2 |
Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (Dec 04 VET)
| 2005 (f) | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
| 6.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | - 0.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 9.2 | 3.6 |
GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/ADB/IMF/UPI/BKK Post
| 2010 (f) | 2007 (f) | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 20011 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| double year 2000 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.25 | 4.4 | 7.1/ 7.0/4.75 | 6.75/5.5 | 4.8 | 5.8 / 4.0 | 8.8 / 8.2 | 9.34 | 9.54 |
1. The
State reduced this figure from 7.5 to 7.1 in October 2001, which the World Bank
supports.
GDP (converted to US$) US$ 1 = VND 15,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars
| 20051 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 53.1 | 35.3 | 33.7 | 32.89 | 32.9 | 28.19 | 26.41 | 26.0 | 24.27 | 21.65 | 14.86 |
1. US Department of State
GDP per capita household consumption (converted to US$) VND 1 = US$ 16,0001 (constant)
| 2006 (f)6 | 20055 | 20044 | 2002 | 20013 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 | 1995 |
| 720 | 638 | 564 | 394 | 375-1,875 | 363 2 | 339 | 311 | 295 | 282 | 200 |
1 as of 1 September 2005. We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND and at 15,000 VND as constants. Thus when looking at the actual GDP per capita for 1995 at the time, please first convert to VND at the current rate and then use the rate of conversion then current (11,500 to 1) for US$ 278.26
2 This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark. VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published. While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports:
[The average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time.... Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) in 1999, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86. (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000).
VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam. The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.
3. It is claimed (VIR, Jan 2002 p10) that this reported range is determined under the Parity Purchase Power method (PPM).
For a more complete read on the PPP system developed by the United Nations, please write to VVG to receive a copy by E-mail.
The more widely accepted sum for year 2001 is $399.
4. Source: Ministry of Finance, as reported in the 726VIR4 September 12-18, 2005 that also reports Per Capita Income for the same period at US$ 384
5. US Department of State
6. BKK Post 18 Oct 06, quoting PM Dung.
Caveat: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing. The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. The numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground. There is rarely an explanation offered.
Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line or above for such historic details as they may need. This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.
These numbers do not include ODA disbursements that in 2004 has been variably reported but in the range of $2.8 billion. This has been increased to $3.4 billion for 2005. Despite its fast-growing economy, averaging seven per cent a year, the country still relies on foreign aid to build schools, clinics, road and power grids. $25 billion was earlier pledged from 1999 to 2003.
As of February 22, 2008 (March2008 VET) 8.753 [vs. 8.590 last month] with Total Investment Capital US$
87.595 billion [vs. $83.104 billion last month] and Implemented Capital of US$ 29.234 billion [vs. $29.236 last month].3Where the numbers increase or decrease month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number. We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves as the system lacks transparency.
Top Twenty Foreign Direct Investor Nations :
|
Rank2 |
Nation |
Number
of |
Total Capital (US$b) |
Implemented Capital (US$b) |
Rank2 |
Nation |
Number
of |
Total Capital (US$b) |
Implemented Capital (US$b) |
|
1 |
Rep. of Korea |
1,873+ |
14.439+ |
2.738+ |
11 |
China |
561+ |
1.842- |
0.253- |
|
2 |
Singapore |
511+ |
11.385+ |
3.858+ |
12 |
|